🏀 Do We Trust Minnesota at Home?

With their backs against the wall, the Timberwolves were able to avoid the sweep in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The series returns to Minnesota, where Luka and Kyrie were able to win comfortably in the clutch. Is a game six in play? We'll find out tonight 😮‍💨 (2 min read)

Author

Will Gendron
May 30, 2024

Never Been Done

Teams that have fallen into a 3-0 deficit during an NBA playoff series have not fared well. Of the 155 times it has happened, no team has ever come back, going 0-155. Anthony Edwards, KAT and Gobert will get an opportunity to push the series to six while playing on their home court. Can the Timberwolves do the impossible? 🐺

Home court advantage has not been as big a factor during this postseason. Even though Luka and co will step into the Target Center tonight, I don’t necessarily think they will suffer the typical adversity when it comes to playing on the road, like offensive disorganization for example 📣

  • Dallas took the first two games of this series, while playing in Minnesota, where Luka and Kyrie averaged 32.5 PPG and 25 PPG

  • Minnesota also showed they can win on the road, taking game four of this series, and also winning three games in Denver during the Western Conference Semi-Finals

Look, it doesn’t make for thoughtful analysis, but if Ant and KAT get outplayed as thoroughly as they did through the first three games of this series, Dallas will win tonight’s game comfortably 🤠

  • Ant was only able to post above a 40% FG after the first two games — shooting 37.5% and 29.4% in games 1 and 2, before reaching 45.8% and 44% in games 3 and 4

  • Beyond percentages, Edwards just hasn’t looked comfortable with Derrick Jones Jr. as his primary defender and the big man duo of Gafford and Lively protecting the rim

  • If Ant can play as decisively as he did in game 4, and KAT can provide support like he did in the fourth quarter last game, then the Timberwolves will have a shot to push the series to six

In other news, tonight could potentially be the final edition of Inside the NBA (read more). The TNT mainstay has been around since the 1990-91 season with a rolodex of hosts, including the late Craig Sager, before settling into its current groove. Make sure you toast to the guys at some point during the night! ⭐️

Oh and by the way, because the NBA has Finals dates locked in way ahead of time, if Dallas wins tonight we won’t see playoff basketball until next Thursday, June 6th 👀

  • Spread: Timberwolves -4.5

  • Moneyline: Timberwolves -198, Mavericks +166

  • Over/Under: 209.5 Total Points

  • When: 8:30PM EST on TNT

Trivia Question: Who was the last team to force a game seven, after falling into a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs?

For My Parlay Gurus

While I don’t think Minnesota becomes the first team to do the impossible, I do think they manage to extend the series. I like the Timberwolves’ moneyline and after a down game four, I think Kyrie bounces back scoring-wise. Check it out 👇

  • Timberwolves ML vs Mavs: -198

  • Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points: -113

$100 on this bet would win you $188 — if we hit, make sure you email [email protected] for a chance to win an Overtime hoodie*. Many will enter, only some will win 😉

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Trivia Answer: Last year during the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics fell into a 3-0 deficit against the Heat. They would end up losing Game 7 at home

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