• Even The Odds
  • Posts
  • Rookie or the Vet? Two QB battles that are heating up

Rookie or the Vet? Two QB battles that are heating up

The Bears and Patriots have two weeks to choose a starting QB, and both teams are in similar positions (4 minute read)

Competition is a good thing. In any sport, starters should be pushed to EARN their starting job, while rookies and journeymen are ALWAYS looking to shake things up

In today’s NFL, Quarterbacks are the faces of their franchise. Two organizations in particular have two weeks to answer the age old question: Rookie, or Vet?

New England Patriots

Odds to start Week 1:

  • Cam Newton: -305 (bet $305, win $100)

  • Mac Jones: +225 (bet $100, win $225)

Mac Jones was selected 15th overall in this past draft. While that’s not necessarily “franchise QB” territory, it’s pretty clear he’s Bill Belichick next guy. While Newton has been the expected Week 1 starter, Vegas continues to close the gap in the betting odds

Cam was asked by the media who he thinks will get the starting job, to which he replied:

Man, you know the answer to that question…I don't know what y'all want me to say…everything y'all know, I know.

Last Thursday vs Washington:

  • Cam Newton: 4/7 passing, 49 yards, 2 drives, 3 pts

  • Mac Jones: 13/19 passing, 87 yards, 5 drives, 6 pts

No Patriots QB has ever won more than 6 games in a season, which makes Cam the safe bet here. However, Newton led the Pats to 7-9 last season, their worst record since Drew Bledsoe started back in 2000. While it might not be in Week 1, expect Mac Jones to finish the season under center

Chicago Bears

If you haven’t heard, Justin Fields is LEGIT. The Rookie QB showed out in his first NFL game this past Sunday. His performance, like Mac Jones, led Vegas to adjust their lines

Odds to start Week 1 last week:

  • Andy Dalton: -350 (bet $350, win $100)

  • Justin Fields: +250

Current odds to start Week 1:

  • Andy Dalton: -250 (bet $250, win $100)

  • Justin Fields: +190

Reminder: The Bears traded up 9 picks to take Fields No. 11, giving the Giants a 2022 first and fourth round pick, in addition to their 2021 20th pick

Again, this doesn’t mean Fields HAS to start Week 1. But, it does put more pressure on the Bears organization to give him a shot, considering Andy Dalton is not nearly as talented as Cam Newton

Why the change in odds? Look at the impact Fields made this past Saturday:

  • Andy Dalton: 2/4 passing, 18 yards, 2 drives, 0 pts, 0 first downs

  • Justin Fields: 14/20 passing, 175 total yards, 2 total TDs, 6 drives, 20 pts

If you ask me, Justin Fields should get the starting nod two weeks from today. Both QBs will continue to split reps in Preseason, but betting on Fields to start Week 1 now, rather than waiting, will give you a significantly more attractive payout

Don’t be shocked if these lines move again next week…

Projected Win Totals:

Here’s what Vegas is predicting record wise for these two teams. These lines will likely change once starting QBs are chosen

Chicago Bears:

  • Over 7.5 wins: even money

  • Under 7.5 wins: -130

New England Patriots:

  • Over 9.5 wins: -135

  • Under 9.5 wins: +105

Are you taking the over or under on these teams? Let us know in the comments 👇