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The Patriots Have Covered Spread Six Games In A Row
The Patriots are on a 6-game win streak and travel to Buffalo with first place in the AFC on the line. Are you betting on Mac Jones or Josh Allen? 🏈 (4 minute read)
Gardner Minshew is the man. That’s all. Let’s talk Monday Night Football 👇
Monday Night Football Preview
Just one year after running away with their first division title since 1995, the Bills find themselves trailing the Patriots in the AFC East standings once again. This time, however, the opposing quarterback in NOT named Tom Brady
The Patriots’ “rebuilding mode” seemed to happen overnight, as rookie Mac Jones has turned things around for the 8-4 Patriots
New England has rattled off six straight wins, holding opponents to under 14 points in five of those victories. They’ll be up against a Bills squad, who have been stuck in a win-one, lose-one pattern since Week 5
Spread: Bills -3
Moneyline: Patriots +125 (bet $100, win $125), Bills -145
Over/Under: 41.0
Trivia question: The Patriots went 7-9 last season. What year was their last losing season before 2020? (answer below)
Nearly Automatic ATS
Sunday, October 17th – that’s the last time the Patriots lost a game. During their six-game win streak, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 35 to 11. Not only has New England performed well over the last six weeks, but they’ve also been covering the spread 👇
Betting trends
The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games
They are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo
59% of money bet on the Patriots spread for MNF
The Pats are 5-0 on the road this season, and their steady offense under Mac Jones has proved to be successful. They’re averaging 28.0 PPG (7th in NFL) and 355.3 total Y/G (15th in NFL). Not to mention, New England’s defense has been excellent in recent weeks – they’ve not allowed a point in the second half in each of their past three outings
History has taught us that New England is nearly unstoppable against the spread when they travel to Buffalo, so why would I challenge that? I’m taking the Patriots +3 😈
Mac Jones Prop Bet
Mac Jones, the No. 15 pick out of Alabama, has been nothing short of exceptional in his rookie campaign. He’s thrown for 2,850 yards (10th in NFL) and has become the odds-on favorite to win NFL OROY. Let’s take a look at his passing yards prop for MNF, as he faces one of his toughest tests yet…
Over 205.5: -110
Under 205.5: -120
Despite Mac coming off his best passing performance in a win over the Titans last week (310 yds & 2 TDs), I’m taking the under and here’s why 👇
Buffalo’s defense: They’re only allowing 178.5 yards through the air this season (2nd in NFL), while also averaging 2.3 takeaways per game (1st in NFL)
Weather conditions: Freezing rain is expected at Highmark Stadium tonight, accompanied by 20+ MPH winds. That could lead to a run-focused game, making Coach Bill Belichick rely on his RB crew instead of Mac’s arm
For My Parlay Gurus
Buffalo is a very difficult place to play, so we’ll learn a lot about Mac Jones tonight in primetime. He’s already shown that he’s not afraid to be the dark horse, as the Patriots are 2-1 as underdogs this year. A lot of cash will be bet in favor of New England on MNF – just like our parlay 👇
Patriots +3: -115
Mac Jones under 205.5 passing yards: -120
Throwing down $100 on this parlay would result in a $242 payout, that’s just enough to snag this Patriots parka for the next time you want to freeze your face off in Buffalo ☃️. If this hits, make sure to email justin.schnell@itsovertime.com for $100. First come, first serve 💰
Trivia answer: Before 2020, the last time the Patriots finished below .500 was in 2000 when they went 5-11. They won the Super Bowl the next season in Brady’s second year