The Patriots (-275) Have Beaten The Falcons Six Times In A Row

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Thursday Night Football Preview

Both the Patriots (6-4) and Falcons (4-5) took part in blowouts of at least 38 points last week — New England was on the good side of a 45-7 victory over the Browns, while Atlanta was on the wrong end of a 43-3 beatdown in Dallas

It’s safe to say both performances are in the minds of oddsmakers…despite traveling to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Patriots are heavy favorites ahead of tonight’s showdown👇

TNF Betting Preview

• Spread: Patriots -7 @ Falcons

• Moneyline: Falcons +220 (bet $100, win $220), Patriots -275

• Over/Under: 47

Both these teams could use a win as they jockey for postseason positioning. New England is just a half-game behind Buffalo in the AFC East standings, while Atlanta is a game out of a NFC Wild Card spot

Quarterback Comparison 

As a former Boston College QB, Matt Ryan may hold a soft spot for the New England area, but Bill Belichick and the Pats have been a thorn in his side throughout his career

• The Patriots are only one of three teams Ryan hasn’t beaten in his NFL career (Steelers and his own Falcons)

• In three regular season losses, he’s thrown for just three total touchdowns

• The last time these teams met was in Super Bowl LI — anyone remember that one? 😅

To make matters worse, Ryan is coming off one of the worst games of his career. Against the Cowboys, he completed just 9 of 21 attempts and threw two INTs

On the other side there’s Mac Jones, who has over 200 less games under his belt than Ryan, but is having an eerily similar passing season

• The rookie has tossed for 2,333 yards this year with 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, compared to Ryan’s line of 2,274/15/8

• Mac has led New England to four straight victories; over that span, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 150-50

• Jones was nearly perfect last week, completing 19 of his 23 passes for three touchdowns and a 142.1 passer rating

These two couldn’t be further apart in their career trajectories, but last week it was Jones who looked like the veteran. In this head-to-head matchup, the rook may have the advantage 👶

Trivia Question: who were the two players selected before Matt Ryan in the 2008 NFL Draft? (answer below)

Other Players To Watch

With Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden potentially all fighting for carries, the Patriots backfield is too crowded to trust. So let’s instead turn our attention to the receiving corps, where some interesting lines await

🤲 Kendrick Bourne Over/Under Receiving Yards: 35.5

• Bourne had his best game in a Patriots uniform last week, catching four passes for 98 yards and a score while adding another 43 yards on the ground

• He’s had less than 33 receiving yards just once since Week 2

🤲 Jakobi Meyers Over/Under Receptions: 4.5

• Meyers found the end zone for the first time in his career last week — he notched 1,522 career receiving yards before scoring a touchdown, by far the longest span in NFL history

• He leads the Patriots with 76 targets this year (30 more than the next closest) and has been on the field for at least 90% of offensive snaps in seven games

For the Falcons’ playmakers, going up against the Patriots D is never a fun time. It’s tough to trust anyone to put up big numbers, but one player is emerging as a borderline matchup-proof force

🤲 Kyle Pitts Over/Under Receptions: 5.5

• This year’s fourth overall pick has looked as good as advertised, currently ranking third amongst NFL tight ends with 606 receiving yards

• He’s had at least six targets in all but one game this season

Belichick has made it a habit of trying to shut down the opposing team’s best player, which could hurt Pitts yardage, but I expect the Falcons to try to feed him early and often

For My Parlay Gurus

7 points is a lot for a road team to cover, even one playing as well as the Pats, so I’m sticking with just props this time. Check this parlay out👇

• Kendrick Bourne over 33.5 receiving yards: -115

• Kyle Pitts over 4.5 receptions: -145

Also we have yesterday’s parlay in the works tonight, here it is as a reminder

• Patriots -7 @ Falcons: -105

• Over 47.5 total points: -110

We gave away $100 yesterday, so make sure to email [email protected] if either of these hit. First come, first serve 😉

Trivia Answer: Offensive tackle Jake Long went first overall in 2008 to the Dolphins, and unrelated defensive end Chris Long went second to the Rams