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The Packers vs. Chiefs Spread Has Moved 10 Points Since The Line Opened

With Aaron Rodgers sidelined with COVID, the Chiefs are now 7.5-point favorites vs Jordan Love and the Packers on Sunday afternoon 🧀 (4 minute read)

Happy Friday team - if you’re still alive in a survivor pool, take the Steelers or Cowboys this weekend. And if this is your first time reading, track the parlay below - if it hits I’ll give $100 to the first person to email [email protected] 🤑

Rodgers vs. Mahomes, But Not

The last time the Chiefs played the Packers (2019), Patrick Mahomes missed the game after getting hurt the week before. Now, Aaron Rodgers’ positive COVID test result will keep him sidelined for Sunday’s matchup vs GB. I guess Rodgers vs Mahomes was just not meant to be 😢

Since Vegas started taking bets on this game, the line has been all over the place 🌪

  • Opened at Chiefs -2.5

  • Quickly swung to Packers -1

  • Now, it’s Chiefs -7.5 following the news of Rodgers’ absence

Where is the Love?

With Rodgers out, Jordan Love will step in under center for his first meaningful start as a Packer. After sitting out his entire rookie season, the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has appeared in two games this year, all in garbage time

  • Week 1, 3-38 loss to New Orleans: 68 yards on 5-7 passing

  • Week 2, 35-17 win over Detroit: One kneel down for a loss of three yards

Without any meaningful snaps in Love’s career as the heir to Rodgers, let’s take a look at his junior year in college and final season at Utah State

  • Threw for 3,402 yards while completing 61.9% of his passes

  • Had 20 TDs to 17 INTs

  • Rushed for 175 yards on 81 attempts without a TD (2.5 yards per carry)

While the potential is there, the Lambeau Loyalist currently equate Love to other skill players Green Bay passed on in the 2020 draft

  • WRs Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman were taken 7 picks after Love

  • WRs Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Darnell Mooney and Quez Watkins were drafted later

  • Most of the offseason drama surrounding Rodgers was due to Green Bay’s reluctancy to surround him with talent at skill positions

Trivia question: Which QB holds the record for the most passing yards in their first career start?

Chiefs Check-up

At 4-4 entering Week 9, the Chiefs have just the eighth-best odds of winning Super Bowl LVI

  • Buffalo Bills: +500

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +600

  • Los Angeles Rams: +650

  • Green Bay Packers: +850

  • Dallas Cowboys: +950

  • Arizona Cardinals: +1000

  • Baltimore Ravens: +1200

  • Kansas City Chiefs: +1200

However, a couple of developing trends suggest that they could be poised for a late-season surge

  • Tyreek Hill is heating up (12 catches for 94 yards last week) and is low-key Top-5 in receiving yards

  • Their defense just got better (traded a conditional 6th round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to the Steelers for OLB Melvin Ingram III)

With Love on the other side of the ball, this is a must win game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

For My Parlay Gurus

To turn Sunday’s matchup into a major payday, tie these three bets together for a cheeky same-game parlay with +668 odds

  • Under 48 total points: -114

  • Packers +7.5: -115

  • Tyreek Hill over 80.5 yards: -114

Green Bay’s offense might lack the same juice with Love in place of Rodgers, but their 10th-best passing defense should be able to handle the recently erratic Mahomes. We think that’ll keep the score down and give the Packers a chance to cover spread

In addition, Hill will likely get his numbers, giving all three legs a solid chance of landing a massive payout. If this hits, first person to email [email protected] gets $100 🤑

Previous Parlay:

  • Celtics -6.5 @ the Magic: HIT

  • Blazers -3 @ the Cavs: MISS

  • T-Wolves -1 vs the Clippers: MISS

Trivia answer: Mike White’s 405 yards in his debut last week was good for second-most all-time, but Cam Newton’s 422-yard debut in Week 1 of 2011 is still the best ever