🏀 Nuggets Are 9-1 Since All-Star Break

Tonight we have a 2023 Finals rematch, as the Nuggets travel to Miami to take on a Heat team who are starting to click at the right time. The Nuggets have been unstoppable since the break, so this should be a fun one 🤝 (2 min read)

Author

Will Gendron
March 13, 2024

2023 Finals Rematch

As the NBA stretch run continues to play out, it looks like the Western Conference seeding will come down to the wire. The sixth seed (Suns) and tenth seed (Warriors) are separated by three games, anything can happen as we move into April. The Nuggets are a team that won’t have to worry though - since the all-star break, Denver has posted a 9-1 record, showing off that championship form 🏆

It helps when you have someone like Jokic, a truly generational player that is reaching a peak I personally haven’t seen since 2012-13 LeBron, who similarly was coming off a title himself 👑

  • If it’s a close game Denver will get a good shot, every single possession. Jokic is the ultimate closer and in isolation situations is going to give you at least a 60% chance of scoring a bucket

Denver’s opponent in the Finals last year, the Miami Heat, have not had as good a regular season, but certainly have more talent than last year with the additions of Jaime Jacquez Jr., Terry Rozier and Patty Mills 🔥

  • Jacquez has been a real revelation, offering secondary creation, size and a legitimate spot-up threat for Butler

  • Rozier gives the Heat more shotmaking, a weakness that reared its head in last year’s Finals. Miami simply couldn’t score with Denver

Tonight the two squads will meet in Miami to play for only the second, and final time this regular season. Denver won the first match-up, 103-97, which was close down the stretch. The Heat will continue to play without Tyler Herro, so look for Rozier to get more shots 🏹

  • Covering Jokic: Will Miami opt for single coverage and trust in Bam? Or will Spoelstra double and force other players to hit shots?

  • Miami’s defensive coverage in the fourth quarter is what I’m most looking forward to watching — the league’s best schematic mind in Spoelstra versus the league’s best player in Jokic

  • Spread: Nuggets -3

  • Moneyline: Nuggets -154, Heat +130

  • Over/Under: 213.5

  • When: 7:30PM on ESPN

Check out these throwback highlights of Jokic’s first Finals game, last summer against the Heat 👇

Trivia Question: Aside from averaging a near triple double, Nikola Jokic is posting 1.3 steals per game. Where does this rank in the league?

For My Parlay Gurus

Even though the Nuggets will be away from home court, I still like them to cover spread. They are 9-1 since returning from the All-Star break, with a lone loss to the Suns that could have gone either way - it seems like Denver is just in that groove right now. Additionally, with scoring on the decline as referees are allowing more physicality, I’m going with the under. Check out my parlay 👇

  • Nuggets -3 @ Heat: -114

  • Under 213.5 Total Points: -108

$100 on this bet would win you $251 — if we hit, make sure you email [email protected] for a chance to win an Overtime hoodie*. Many will enter, only some will win 😉

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Trivia Answer: Jokic is 14th in the league when it comes to SPG, but he is tied at ninth for total steals, which leads all centers. His per game average is higher than Giannis, Derrick White and Anthony Davis

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