The Injury Bug

Your luck can change fast in the NBA playoffs, as each game presents as an opportunity to swing the momentum of a series. Unfortunately, included in that luck is the tenuous nature of players' health, a reality all too familiar to the majority of the squads facing off tonight. No team has been beset by a more shocking and untimely injury than the Mavs, who face off against Utah tonight down 1-0 👇

• Dallas runs perhaps the most heliocentric offense in the league; their entire system is powered by the brilliant orchestration of Slovenian sensation Luka Doncic

• In a perplexing decision, head coach Jason Kidd kept Doncic on the floor with the Mavs up 18 in the third quarter of the season finale, and the star sustained a left calf strain

• Luka's status is day-to-day, but it is unlikely he'll return for Game 2 without a dramatic improvement. Tim Hardaway Jr. is still out as well

While the Mavs were able to keep it close in Game 1, it's clear that they have little hope of winning this series without their foundational superstar. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have their reigning MVP vs Golden State, but his supporting cast has been decimated by injuries this entire season 🤕

• While Nikola Jokic doesn't wield the same usage rate as Doncic, he undoubtedly controls his team's destiny to the same extent

• Efficiency wise, The Joker just put together the best season since Wilt Chamberlain in 1961. But, he will be hard-pressed to keep the Nuggets competitive in this series without at least one of his injured co-stars, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

• The Warriors, on the other hand, have struggled with injuries throughout the season, but appear to be finding their health at the right time

Jazz vs. Mavs Betting Preview (subject to change)

• Spread: Jazz -5

• Moneyline: Jazz -220 (bet $220, win $100), Mavs +184 (bet $100, win $184)

• O/U: 205

Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Preview

• Spread: Warriors -7

• Moneyline: Warriors -295, Nuggets +240

• O/U: 224.5

It's All About Luka

It's obvious that the Mavs' playoff fate rests entirely in the hands of Luka. As we saw in Game 1, Dallas now only has two players able to create offense (Spencer Dinwiddie & Jalen Brunson), and the offense struggled. When Doncic is healthy, Dallas pretty much runs the same play on nearly every possession - a big man will set a high ball screen for Luka and he decides what happens next. Now, things have changed 👇

• While Dallas still has a pair of more-than-capable offensive creators in Dinwiddie and Brunson, both thrive in more secondary ball-handling roles rather than serving as the hub of the offense

• This fact was clear in Game 1, as both players put up solid numbers but were inefficient. I like this guy's positivity though 🙏

• Each piece of Dallas' offense has been cast in relation to Luka — secondary ball-handlers, spot-up shooters and pick-and-roll bigs — his absence is forcing players to step into different roles

The Mavs' opponent has a recent history of playoff failures that have sullied their image in the eyes of most fans, but the Jazz have more than enough firepower to capitalize on their matchup's injury woes 🔥

• Mitchell is responsible for the third highest-scoring game in NBA playoff history, as well as the fifth-highest all time playoff scoring average

• The Jazz have surrounded Mitchell with some capable supporting pieces, led by wily veteran PG Mike Conley and sharp-shooting wing Bojan Bogdanovic, who was electric in Game 1

• Utah's defense runs entirely through three-time DPOY Rudy Gobert, who rarely puts up flashy numbers but provides elite rim protection and rebounding

Are Reinforcements Coming?

Out West, Denver is a team that has been primarily defined by their potential. Despite devastating injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic has managed to carry a mediocre supporting cast to 48 wins. The Joker will likely win his second straight MVP for this heroic effort, but it's becoming clear that this feel-good story cannot hold up against top level competition

• Jokic failed to meet his lofty standards in Game 1 (his -19 +/- was the worst on the team), and the blowout loss highlighted that he will need to be borderline perfect for Denver to steal games

• The Joker has been able to elevate his teammates by playmaking from the high post and creating openings for cutting teammates; still, this approach ultimately relies on the supporting cast to hit open shots and create some verve off the bounce

Even with the potential of Denver receiving reinforcements, it's understandable why the Warriors are -500 to win this series. Golden State is finding their rhythm after a tough stretch during the middle of the season, as their full array of weapons are healthy and starting to gel 💧

• The Warriors didn't need a special performance from Curry in his return, as they relied on a mix of established and newly empowered contributors for the easy W

• Klay Thompson continued to shoot the lights out, draining five three-pointers on Saturday. In his last five regular season games, he shot 41% from three

• The real star of the game was Jordan Poole, who put up a historic playoff debut and has emerged as (can we say it now?) the Third Splash Brother 💦

For My Parlay Gurus

While Dallas can't hang with Utah for a full series without their star, I'm betting on them to steal Game 2 and shift the momentum in hopes of a Luka return in Game 3. Out in the Bay, I'm betting on the Warriors to continue to exploit their massive talent advantage, with the returns of Murray and MPJ looking increasingly unlikely. Take a look 👇

• Dallas +5.5: -110

• Golden State -7: -110

$100 on this bet would win you $264— if we hit, make sure you email [email protected] for a chance to win up to $100*. Many will enter, only some will win 😉

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