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Justin Herbert Has Gone From +2500 Odds To Win NFL MVP To +1200

Herbert's ascension in the NFL has been thoroughly impressive, and he'll have another chance to dazzle vs the undefeated Raiders on MNF 🍿 (3 minute read)

October 04, 2021

Climbing The Charts

For those of you who believe in the sophomore slump, DON’T! Justin Herbert is proving that statement is just a myth. He continues to shoot up the NFL MVP charts, as his odds have shortened by more than half since before the season began (from +2500 to +1200)

Current NFL MVP Odds

  • Kyler Murray: +750 (bet $100, win $750)

  • Patrick Mahomes & Matthew Stafford: +800

  • Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady & Josh Allen: +1000

  • Justin Herbert: +1200

Herbert’s most prolific showing came last week in a memorable win over the Chiefs, where he out-dueled Patrick Mahomes by throwing for 281 yards and four TDs. He’ll face another tough test, as the Chargers take on the 3-0 Raiders tonight in primetime

Herbert’s Passing Prop Bet

Herbert has thrown for 956 yards, which is the fourth-most passing yards by a QB through three weeks this season. Keep that in mind as we take a look at his passing prop bet…

Passing Yards O/U vs the Raiders

  • Over 292.5: -114 (bet $114, win $100)

  • Under 292.5: -114

The Raiders’ defense is giving up 235.3 passing yards per game (14th out of 32 teams). However, with Herbert having two 300+ passing yard performances in three games, taking the over here might be worth it

Herbert’s Rushing Prop Bet

Herbert is underrated at moving out of the pocket, proving that with back-to-back games of 12+ rushing yards. Vegas knows that, and set his rushing prop right at that mark

Rushing Yards O/U vs the Raiders

  • Over 12.5: -114

  • Under 12.5: -114

Coach Jon Gruden knows how hard it will be for the Raiders to plug up the rushing lanes and keep Herbert in check…

“We’ve got to do a great job of containing him first, getting to him second, and getting him on the ground, third, which is not easy to do. This is a big, strong, young, tough, quarterback.”

Las Vegas’ defense has allowed quarterbacks to rush for 123 yards, the second-worst mark in the league. Last season against the Raiders, Herbert hit the over both times, rushing for 24 and 14 yards. Knowing all of that, I’ll be betting with Herbert’s legs on the over

For My Parlay Gurus

If you’re impressed with Herbert in Year 2, then throwing down a MNF parlay in favor of the young QB should be fun

  • Herbert Over 292.5 Passing Yards: -114

  • Herbert Over 12.5 Rushing Yards: -114

  • Chargers’ Money-line: -170

Betting $100 on this parlay would result in a $459 payout if it hits. Fresh off his stellar performance against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, I’m fully on board the Herbert bandwagon 🚂