🏈 Your New Heisman Favorite
This season has featured one of the strangest Heisman races I've ever seen, and with just a couple weeks left in college football's regular season, there's been some major shakeups among the award's top contenders. Things change every week, let's take a look at where the odds are at now 🦆 (2 min read)
Heisman Race Update
Every year the fight for the Heisman Trophy sees its fair share of ebbs and flows from the contenders and the pretenders…but this year’s race has felt like a whole new level of unpredictable 😅
And I’m not just talking about heavy preseason favorite Caleb Williams, who was still the co-favorite as late as Week 5, now being completely out of the conversation (+20000). It seems like every week there’s a new player surging to the top or tumbling down the odds board
Just ask the QB of undefeated #3 Michigan, JJ McCarthy, who has been a top-five contender just about the entire season. But after only needing to throw for 60 yards in Saturday’s victory over #10 Penn State, he saw his Heisman odds balloon from +950 to +9000 🤯
It’s crazy people don’t see JJ McCarthy as an obvious Heisman front runner after having a 87.5% completion percentage against a top 10 team last week.
— Taylor Lewan (@TaylorLewan77)
Nov 14, 2023
In the eyes of oddsmakers, McCarthy is currently on the outside looking in at an invitation to the Heisman ceremony in December, with four frontrunners emerging from the pack…for now. Each has odds lower than +500, while the rest of the field is at +4000 or higher — take a look at the top contenders 👇
Odds To Win 2023 Heisman Trophy (subject to change)
Bo Nix (QB, Oregon): +110
Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU): +320
Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Washington): +380
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Ohio State): +475
For the past month, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. had held steady as the betting favorite, and with the undefeated Huskies continuing to make a convincing push for a CFP spot, he’s done nothing to hurt his case 🤷🏻♂️
But with Huskies’ star running back Dillon Johnson stealing a bit of the spotlight over the past couple weeks with some big performances on the ground, Penix hasn’t been able to stuff the stat sheet quite like two other QBs, who have seriously tightened the competition — Oregon’s Bo Nix and LSU’s Jayden Daniels
Michael Penix and Rome Odunze are absolutely on one today.
Odunze gets wide open off of PA, Penix does a great job holding the Safety off with his eyes, and uncorking a perfectly place ball for the touchdown.
— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven)
Nov 11, 2023
We’ve already checked in on Nix a few times this season, as his candidacy transitioned from fun dark-horse to fringe contender. But over the past two games, he’s taken the next step to bonafide favorite, thanks to nearly 800 passing yards and 10 total TDs 🔥
Bo Nix throws for a season-high 412 yards as No. 6 Oregon defeats USC! 🦆
@OldTrapper Highlights ⤵️
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12)
Nov 12, 2023
Nix leapfrogging Penix may be more recency bias than anything else; comparing their resumes is truly splitting hairs. But what makes the conversation really interesting is when you factor in Daniels, who has equally gaudy stats, but against much tougher competition 🤔
Top 3 Heisman Candidates vs Top 50 defenses:
Bo Nix - 1 game - 248 yds passing - 2 TD - 8yds rushing - 1 TD
Michael Penix - 4 games - 1263 yds - 6 TD 3INT - -25 rushing
Jayden Daniels - 5 games - 1469 passing - 13 TD 4INT - 486 yds rushing 2 TDs
Seems pretty simple to me!!
— Jason Tarver (@bgtgrfan)
Nov 13, 2023
The flip side to that, of course, is the stiff competition has #19 LSU at 7-3 and firmly out of the CFP picture. That’s not to say we haven’t had Heisman winners from unspectacular teams before, but Washington and Oregon’s success is undoubtedly a huge boost for those QBs 📈
Then again, maybe a QB won’t win after all. A few years ago Devonta Smith became the first WR in 30 years to win the Heisman; in a race as wide-open as this one, how can you not consider Ohio State superstar Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Marvin Harrison Jr is way too good to be playing College Football
— PFF College (@PFF_College)
Nov 12, 2023
You know the soon-to-be NFL ROTY is backing his former wideout as well. There’s currently a convincing case to be made for any of the four top candidates, but as we’ve witnessed firsthand this season, the conversation can shift dramatically in a heartbeat 👀
Trivia Question: Who was the last non-QB who didn’t go to Alabama to win the Heisman?
For My Parlay Gurus
After a thrilling first meeting earlier this season, #5 Washington and #6 Oregon look to be on a collision course for a PAC-12 title game with huge CFP and Heisman implications. I’m backing both this weekend; check out this parlay 👇
$100 on this bet would win you $289 — if we hit, make sure you email [email protected] for a chance to win up to $100*. Many will enter, only some will win 😉
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Trivia Answer: Three Alabama position players have won the Heisman in the last 15 years (Devonta Smith, Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram), but aside from them, USC running back Reggie Bush in 2005 is the most recent non-QB winner
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