• Even The Odds
  • Posts
  • All Four AFC West Teams Are Plus Odds To Win The Division

All Four AFC West Teams Are Plus Odds To Win The Division

Each team in the AFC West has a winning record, but none have emerged as an odds-on favorite to claim the division title 😳 (4 minute read)

What up new readers! The Chicago Bears have bad field goal luck 😏. As always, if the parlay below hits, the first person to email [email protected] gets $100 🤑*

AFC West Mid-Season Review

We have officially passed the midpoint of the NFL season, and as you might expect, the playoff picture has begun to take shape. But, whereas most divisions have seen an odds-on favorite emerge from the pack, one in particular looks especially up for grabs — the AFC West 👑

There’s just two divisions (AFC West & AFC North) in the NFL with all four teams over .500, and each team in the AFC West is currently plus money to be atop the standings when the season ends

  • Chargers (5-3): +135

  • Chiefs (5-4): +160

  • Raiders (5-3): +550

  • Broncos (5-4): +800

How The Mighty Have Fallen 

Fresh off consecutive Super Bowl appearances, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs entered the season as heavy favorites to repeat as division champs

  • Had the highest preseason odds (-250) of any division favorite

  • Chiefs have won the AFC West every season since 2016

  • Despite starting the season 1-2, Week 5 was the first week where KC wasn’t favored to win the division

Fortunately for Andy Reid and Mahomes, none of their rivals have run away with the division, so there’s still time to right the ship. But, even consecutive wins over the past two weeks haven’t inspired much confidence

  • Kansas City has managed just 27 total points over their past three games

  • Mahomes has had five straight games with a QBR below 50; prior to this stretch, he had just two such games in his regular season career

To make matters worse, the Chiefs have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL. The talent that made this team the clear-cut favorite is still there, but the road to the postseason will certainly be tougher than Kansas City fans anticipated

Incoming Chargers

The only team besides the Chiefs to spend time as the AFC West favorite this season? That would be the Los Angeles Chargers, led by the talented, but sporadic Justin Herbert 

  • The Chargers first overtook the Chiefs as division favorites after a thrilling 47-42 victory over the Browns in Week 5 that improved their record to 4-1

  • Herbert starred in the shootout, tossing for 398 yards while accounting for 5 total TDs

  • However, the sophomore QB came back down to Earth in the next two games — a pair of losses to the Ravens and Patriots

As a result of the uneven play, the Chargers and Chiefs have spent the past few weeks alternating as tenuous favorites. But, if you have to tie your horse to one of them pulling away down the stretch, Los Angeles may be the smarter play

  • Herbert returned to form in a win over the Eagles last week, finishing with 356 passing yards and three total touchdowns

  • The Chargers remaining strength of schedule checks in at 25th in the league, giving them the easiest path of all AFC West teams

Trivia question: When is the last time the Chargers won the AFC West?

The Value Picks

Seeing as each team has the same number of wins, it’s a bit surprising to see the Broncos and Raiders lagging so far behind their division mates on the odds board. You could make a solid case for either as a dark horse to get hot in the second half of the season

Believer in recency bias? Look no further than the biggest long shot in the division, the Broncos

  • Their 30-16 victory on Sunday over a Cowboys team that had won its previous six games was arguably the most impressive win any team in the division has had this season

  • Von Miller may no longer be in town, but the stingy Denver D has allowed just 13.3 points per game over their past three matchups

Or maybe you love a good storyline?

  • It has certainly been a tumultuous few weeks for the Raiders, who have seen a hot start to the season fade amid a variety of off-the-field issues

  • Quarterback Derek Carr has been praised for his leadership given the circumstances, and is on pace for his best passing season to date; can the team rally around him?

Personally, I like the Broncos at +800 way more than the unpredictable Raiders at +550

For My Parlay Gurus

Since I’ve been giving a little love to the Chargers, it’s only right to keep things LA-themed for my parlay with the Clippers in action tonight. Try this one out 👇

  • Clippers -3 vs the Trail Blazers: -110

  • Paul George over 27.5 points: -114

  • Paul George over 3.5 threes: +140

$100 on this parlay would net you $760. If it hits, make sure to email [email protected] for $100. First come, first serve 😉

Previous Parlay:

  • Under 48 total points: HIT

  • Packers +7.5: HIT

  • Tyreek Hill over 80.5 yards: MISS

Trivia answer: Philip Rivers and the Chargers last won the AFC West in 2009 with a 13-3 record