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The Favorite To Win The Heisman Rarely ACTUALLY Wins It

Only one of the last ten players favored to win the Heisman actually went on to win it 👇 (4 minute read)

Heisman History

Last season, DeVonta Smith became the first WR since Desmond Howard (1991) to win the Heisman Trophy. He was also the first non-QB to earn the honor since Derrick Henry in 2015

Heisman Trophies by Position (Since 2000):

  • QBs - 17

  • RBs - 3

  • WRs - 1

The thing about the Heisman is that it’s extremely difficult to predict the winner, as the preseason favorites rarely actually win the award. As a matter of fact, only one of the last ten players favored to win the Heisman actually went on to win it…

For example, the 2020 preseason favorite was QB Justin Fields at +450. DeVonta Smith’s preseason odds were +6600, but he ended up beating out Fields to win the Heisman with closing odds of -200

2021 Heisman Odds

With all of that in mind, take a look at the current Heisman odds as we head into Week 1 of the College Football season

  • Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma): +500

  • Bryce Young (Alabama): +900

  • JT Daniels (Georgia): +1000

  • C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)/Sam Howell (UNC): +1100

  • D.J. Uiagalelei (Clemson)/Matt Corral (Ole Miss): +1200

  • Kedon Slovis (USC): +2000

  • Bijan Robinson (Texas)/D’Eriq King (Miami): +2200

Of the Top 10 favorites, Texas Longhorn RB Bijan Robinson is the only non-QB of the bunch. But, as discussed above, 81% of Heisman winners this century have been QBs

The Favorite: Spencer Rattler (+500)

Two of the last four Heisman Trophy winners have been Oklahoma QBs, as Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray brought it home in 2017 & 2018. Now, it’s Spencer Rattler’s turn to try

Rattler’s 2020 stats:

  • 3,031 passing yards

  • 28 passing TDs

  • 7 INTs

  • Record: 9-2

The Sooners finished 2020 by winning their sixth straight Big 12 Championship and the Goodyear Cotton Bowl. Despite it only being Rattler’s first full campaign, it turned out to be a strong one

Oklahoma is returning a majority of their offense this season. RB Kennedy Brooks, who missed 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns, is back and will be joined by Tennessee transfer Eric Gray. Along with this running back duo, Rattler will have weapons like Marvin Mims and Theo Wease (when he returns from injury) at WR. The last three Oklahoma starting quarterbacks finished no worse than second in Heisman voting, and we expect Rattler to be no different

The Value Pick: D.J. Uiagalelei (+1200)

Clemson sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei has already been impressive in high pressure situations. He replaced Trevor Lawrence in 2020 when he was out with COVID-19

Uiagalelei’s 2020 stats:

  • 914 passing yards

  • 5 passing TDs

  • 0 INTs

Uiagalelei was the No. 2 recruit in the 2020 class, but will have some work to do this season with Clemson losing RB Travis Etienne, WR Amari Rodgers and WR Cornell Powell to the draft

Although former Clemson QBs Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence did not win the Heisman during their collegiate careers, they both finished 2nd in voting. Uiagalelei at +1200 will look to change Tiger history

The Heisman Parlay

As you know, it’s tough to predict Heisman winners. If history has taught us anything, it’s to ride with the QBs. With that said, if you bet $100 on the Top 3 Heisman favorite QBs to finish in this order:

  • First place: Spencer Rattler, +500

  • Second place: Bryce Young, +900

  • Third place: JT Daniels, +1000

Well…then you’d be looking at a $65,900 payout. Not bad for an unpredictable award!

Who are you betting on to win the Heisman this season? Let us know 👇