The Dolphins (-155) Are 5-1 ATS During Their Six Game Win Streak

Welcome back. Who had a better game? Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott? — let’s talk Dolphins vs. Saints 👇

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Monday Night Football Preview

A high-stakes game in late December? That’s exactly what this Dolphins (7-7) vs. Saints (7-7) matchup is expected to be, as both teams are still vying for a playoff spot. The only problem is, COVID-19 has bulldozed through the entire Saints roster, leaving many unanswered questions

• At least 15 players tested positive this week, including starting QB Taysom Hill and backup Trevor Siemian

• Saints HC Sean Payton personally called Drew Brees, who was vacationing in Hawaii with his family, to try to lure him out of retirement. Brees’ response was epic 🏌️

• The Saints will have to settle with rookie Ian Book, who set a school record for most wins by a starting QB at Notre Dame with 30

• Despite signing Blake Bortles to back up Book, NOLA’s “emergency” backup is RB Alvin Kamara. He’s attempted one pass, a trick play, in his NFL career and completed it for 13 yards in 2019

One thing is certain, the Saints will be taking on a red-hot Dolphins team. They’ve won six straight games and just re-activated WR Jaylen Waddle from the COVID-19 reserve list

MNF Preview

• Spread: Dolphins -3 @ Saints

• Moneyline: Dolphins -155 (bet $155, win $100), Saints +135 (bet $100, win $135)

• Over/Under: 37

Spread Movement

The Saints initially opened as three point home favorites against the Dolphins, but they’ve since moved to home underdogs after the news of their COVID-19 outbreak. That’s a six-point swing from the opening line 😱

Over the last six weeks, Miami has demonstrated that they’re capable of walking into the Superdome and covering the spread

• Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games

• They’ve beaten the Texans, Ravens, Jets (2x), Panthers and Giants

After starting the season 1-7, the Dolphins have rattled off six straight wins. They have the second-longest active win streak in the NFL, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs (8). The Dolphins are trying to become the first team to make the playoffs after being at least six games below .500

The key to the Dolphins’ mid-season success? Their defense 👇

• Miami has given up just 13.2 PPG during their win streak. And with a blitz rate of 38.7%, expect rookie Ian Book to have a long night in New Orleans

• The Dolphins are 2-1 vs rookie QBs this season, with wins against the Patriots’ Mac Jones and the Jets’ Zach Wilson. After tonight, I think that record should change to 3-1

Alvin Kamara Prop Bet

Despite riding with the Dolphins ATS, I’m going to turn to the Saints’ Alvin Kamara for a prop bet. With the Saints lacking personnel and a rookie QB under center, Kamara should be the focal point of their offense

Rushing Yards O/U vs the Dolphins

• Over 57.5: -114

• Under 57.5: -114

For the fifth consecutive year, Kamara has been selected to play in the Pro Bowl. He’s rushed for 70+ yards five times this season, including his best rushing performance in Week 14 vs the Jets (120 rush yds, 1 rush TD)

Even though the Dolphins are giving up just 103.7 rushing Y/G this season (7th-best in NFL), I’m expecting them to get a steady diet of Kamara 💯

Trivia question: can you name both schools Kamara played at? If that’s too easy, can you name the other running backs he sat behind on the depth chart at college #1? (answer below)

For My Parlay Gurus

As the season winds down, most of these games have playoff implications, including tonight’s primetime matchup. With the stakes this high in late December, I’m sure the Saints didn’t expect to be starting their fourth-string QB Ian Book. Kamara may be carrying New Orleans’ offense, but the odds are in Miami’s favor

• Dolphins -3 @ Saints: even money

• Alvin Kamara over 57.5 rushing yards: -114

Throwing down $100 on this parlay would result in a $275 payout. If this hits, make sure to email [email protected] for $100*. First come, first serve 💰

Trivia answer: Kamara went to Alabama before transferring to Tennessee in 2015. He had knee surgery his freshman year, then redshirted because Derrick Henry, T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake were ahead of him on the depth chart