Betting Against The Pitcher With The Worst ERA

The Royals' Kris Bubic has been getting smacked this year, and faces a solid Orioles lineup. On the other hand, Tyler Anderson and Dylan Cease have been balling and face-off in Chicago. I like today's parlay ๐Ÿ˜ฎโ€๐Ÿ’จ (4 min read)

Today's parlay is Orioles -1.5 vs. Royals and Dodgers vs. White Sox Under 8.5. More info below on a chance to win $100 ๐Ÿ‘‡

Photo by @rangers on Instagram

Around The League

After a cold start for league-wide offenses, bats all around baseball have started to heat up, along with the weather โ˜€๏ธ

  • Marcus Semien snapped out of his struggles with a three-homer, seven-hit performance across Tuesday's doubleheader

  • The Reds' offense, despite opening the season as one of the worst in baseball, has quietly caught fire, with future Hall of Famer Joey Votto and slugging shortstop Kyle Farmer both ranking among the majors' top five in overall hitting over the past two weeks

  • The Braves smacked four HRs yesterday, hanging 13 on the Athletics

While baseball has definitely turned into a hitters league, we've seen some outstanding pitching this season. Here are few of the week's biggest standouts ๐Ÿ‘‡

  • Sandy Alcantara's emergence as one of the NL Cy Young frontrunners (+600) looks legit, as he's posted five straight starts of at least seven innings heading into yesterday's matchup

  • Former 36th round draft pick Nestor Cortes continues to dominate, currently pacing all AL pitchers with his 1.50 ERA entering Wednesday's start (he let up four runs in four innings vs. the Twins)

  • Stephen Strasburg is set to make his first start of the season today, having pitched just seven times in the bigs since winning the World Series MVP in 2019

Take a look at how some of the above stack up in the latest Cy Young Odds. Reminder, there's two winners, one for both the AL and NL ๐Ÿงข

  • National League: Corbin Burnes (+400), Joe Musgrove (+600), Sandy Alcantara (+600), Carlos Rodon (+1000), Pablo Lopez (+1000)

  • American League: Justin Verlander (+425), Shane McClanahan (+600), Gerrit Cole (+600), Nestor Cortes (+700), Kevin Gausman (+800)

Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

Today's Biggest Loser

Entering today's start, Royals Kris Bubic's 9.33 ERA is the worst of any pitcher in baseball with at least 18 innings pitched. With a number that high, you'd expect him to be on the wrong end of some bad luck. Unfortunately for him, his Statcast page is covered in a sea of dark blue, representative of him being one of the game's most hittable pitchers so far this season ๐Ÿ‘‡

Statcast metrics via BaseballSavant.com

He's never been an ace, but his career ERA of 4.86 is much more respectable. Opposing him is an Orioles' offense that's just started to heat up. Here's how they rank in terms of wRC+

  • Whole season: 21st

  • Last two weeks: 14th

With Austin Hays looking like he could be on the verge of a breakout, and Cedric Mullins returning to last season's form, the Orioles might be primed to hang a very crooked number on Bubic today. Take a look at the odds ๐Ÿ‘‡

  • Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+145)

  • Moneyline: Even

  • O/U: 9.5

Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

Best Matchup Of The Day

Also taking the field today are the Dodgers and White Sox, with Tyler Anderson slated to face Dylan Cease in Chicago. Cease's hot start has been marred by a pair of outings where he allowed at least six earned runs, but he still leads the majors in strikeout rate per nine innings (12.3), with some of the game's best swing-and-miss stuff

Anderson has taken a different path, posting five straight quality starts entering today, including three straight scoreless outings. Typically a quality run preventer over his six previous big league seasons, Anderson has emerged as a straight up bat-misser this year

  • Anderson's new changeup now has the seventh-highest whiff rate amongst pitchers who've faced at least 50 batters this season

  • That puts him ahead of some strikeout kings' best put-away pitches, like Kevin Gausman's splitter (44.5%) and Robbie Ray's slider (44.0%)

Expect a tough outing for batters on both teams tonight in Chicago, and while no one likes to ride unders, this might be the game to send it. Check it out ๐Ÿ‘‡

  • Spread: Dodgers -1.5

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -120 (bet $120, win $100), White Sox +100 (Even)

  • O/U: 8.5

Trivia Question: What pitcher has the most strikeouts in a game this season, and how many did they tally? (answer below)

Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

For My Parlay Gurus

There's a lot to unpack in today's newsletter, but to make it simple here's the lines we're riding. I've got the Orioles spread vs. the struggling Kris Bubic, and the under on the pitching duel between the Dodgers and White Sox. Take a look ๐Ÿ‘‡

  • Orioles -1.5 vs. Royals: +145

  • Dodgers vs. White Sox Under 8.5: -110

$100 on this bet would win you $368 โ€” if we hit, make sure you email [email protected] for a chance to win up to $100*. Many will enter, only some will win ๐Ÿ˜‰

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Trivia Answer: Sandy Alcantara racked up 14 Ks three starts ago, one more than Eric Lauer, Clayton Kershaw, and Jose Berrios' highest single-game strikeout totals this season

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