I Just Don't Get It

We're in Week 7 of the NFL season, and the Chicago Bears are about to play in their third primetime game. Considering they've put up 8.5 PPG over the first two, that feels like three times too many 🤢

• It hasn't just been in primetime that Justin Fields and the Chicago offense has struggled; on the season they rank bottom-five in the league in both total offense (293.5 YPG) and scoring (15.5 PPG)

With tonight's opponent, the New England Patriots, allowing just 15 points combined over their past two games, there's a good chance the Bears struggle to move the ball once again. Oddsmakers are backing the home team accordingly...here's how the lines are shaping up ahead of Monday Night Football in Foxborough 👇

Bears vs. Patriots Betting Preview (subject to change)

• Spread: Patriots -8.5

• Moneyline: Patriots -405 (bet $405, win $100), Bears +320 (bet $100, win $320)

• Over/Under: 40.5

A Bears' team that just put up seven points against a red-hot Patriots' team with a shot at a historic win for Bill Belichick? Sounds like a recipe for a blowout, but FWIW, Chicago has kept all but one of their losses within one possession this season

• The sloppier the game, the better shot the Bears have. Believe it or not, 40.5 total points is actually their third-highest O/U of the season, and the under has hit in four of the six games

They say life is too short to bet the under, but if you're going with the over tonight, you may be relying on the Patriots to do most of the heavy lifting. Based on their recent play, they may be up to the task ⬇️

Offensive Revolution In New England

Their stifling D, a staple of the Belichick era, is a big reason why the Patriots are favored by more than a touchdown tonight, but their offense has been quite impressive lately as well 📈

• After a slow start to the season, New England has put up over 29 PPG over their last four, despite three different starting quarterbacks over that span

• Making his first career starts over the past two Patriot victories, unheralded rookie Bailey Zappe has looked the part of a season vet. The fourth-round pick from Western Kentucky completed 75% of his passes for 497 yards, three TDs and just one INT across the two matchups, as they outscored their opponents by 52 points 😳

• The rook's strong showing in relief of an injured Mac Jones may have turned some heads, but the Pats are sticking with their franchise QB. Jones is reportedly healthy and set to start tonight for the first time since Week 3

It's easy to understand why New England fans might be enamored by an underdog rookie under center, and yes, Jones' last game action saw him throw for three INTs and zero TDs against the Ravens. But the Patriots should remain confident in returning the keys to the offense back to last year's first-round pick

• First off, while he's had an unspectacular start to his sophomore campaign, friendly reminder the Alabama product played in the Pro Bowl last season as a rookie. Sure, it was after several levels of alternates, but the point still remains

• Additionally, he returns to an offense that has seemingly found its identity while he was out. In the three games Jones missed, the Pats rumbled for 147 YPG on the ground

That ground-and-pound attack should get an additional boost with another player returning from injury, as Damien Harris is set to rejoin Rhamondre Stevenson in the New England backfield

• Stevenson has filled in admirably for Harris as the bell cow over the last two weeks, rushing for 237 yards and two TDs. With his prowess as a receiver, he should continue to be featured alongside Harris as they form one of the league's most dangerous two-headed attacks

• The snap distribution between the two backs may be tough to predict tonight, so while I expect the Patriots to have their fair share of success on the ground, I'll be avoiding that backfield for prop purposes

With Jones returning to the fold, I'll instead be hammering him to find his favorite target Jakobi Meyers for more than 51.5 receiving yards tonight 🔨

For My Parlay Gurus

Life may be too short to bet the under, but whoever came up with that saying didn't know the 2022 Chicago Bears offense. I'm banking on 40 points or less and a relatively stress-free win for the Patriots — check out this parlay 👇

• Patriots -8.5 vs. Bears: -106

• Under 40.5 Total Points: -114

$100 on this bet would win you $265 — if we hit, make sure you email [email protected] for a chance to win up to $100*. Many will enter, only some will win 😉

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